NFL Super Wild Card Weekend Betting Preview
Where to find value in the first weekend of the NFL playoffs
All odds and betting lines in the following post were accurate at the time of writing.
The road to Los Angeles has begun.
Which team will survive the month-long gauntlet and shine bright in Hollywood come February?
Will the modern incarnation of perfection himself, Tom Brady lift Lombardi once again, this time in Tinsel Town?
Polarizing, yet mesmerizing between the sidelines, Aaron Rodgers’ journey to Canton might be defined by one last fourth-quarter comeback drive, on Rodeo Drive?
But first, teams have to survive the first round. There is no easy win in the modern NFL, especially not in the playoffs.
I evaluated all the teams in the Wild Card round and gave a value between 1-12, 12 being the best, for each of the following aspects of each team: Quarterback, Kicker, Defense, and Special Team. These aspects have the most influence historically on the final score.
I evaluated each QB comparing completion percentage, touchdown output, consistency, passer rating, DVOA (available on FootballOutsiders.com), and a few other statistical data points.
I evaluated each K comparing Field Goals completion percentage, accuracy between 30 yards and 49 yards (76% of FG are in that range), and Extra Point completion percentage.
Defenses and Special teams were ranked with the DVOA rankings on FootballOutsiders.com and weighed with other statistical data points like turnovers created, points from turnovers, and more.
In my final predictions, I weighed the following aspect of each game: potential weather influence, history, form, and the influence of injuries in their last few results.
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Las Vegas Raiders vs Cincinnati Bengals (CIN -5.5, Over/Under 48, Moneyline LV +189 CIN -227)
Here are my results and notes for this matchup
Quarterbacks
Joe Burrow finishes top of my ranking of QB in the Wild Card round, a definite advantage to CIN in that department. David Carr finished 7th in my ranking. David Carr is 0-7 when the temperature is in the single digits on the Fahrenheit scale.
Kickers
Daniel Carlson is the 2nd best K according to my calculations, and Evan McPherson mid-ranking, at best. The weather could be an issue, but I do not believe long FG attempts will come to play, but rather mid-30 yards constant attempts, due to the possibility of 2 good defenses nullifying the offensive play and wind affecting the passing play. The advantage goes to Las Vegas on the kicking aspect of the game.
Defenses and Special Teams
Both defenses are very similar, both are very good and will nullify the offensive threats, there is value on the Under in the Total and Team Total for both teams.
Final Prediction
5.5 points might be a bit too much for Cincinnati to cover. I would wait for the beginning of the game to see the weather and how influential it is to the play. I would even wait for a possession or two and bet in-game on the Under, and if CIN seems to struggle, I would grab the Raiders at +6 or better if available. (6 is based on the possibility of a missed Extra Point if the weather becomes an issue)
Raiders +6 or better (In-Game Only)
New England Patriots vs Buffalo Bills (BUF -4, O/U 44.5, ML NE +180 BUF -215)
Quarterbacks
Mac Jones is 8th in my ranking, Josh Allen 9th. Yes Josh Allen can run, and that could be an influence on the final score, if the weather is an issue, and it almost always is in Buffalo in January. They both hate playing in the cold, so it is a very equivalent aspect of the game for my handicapping.
Kickers
There is a clear advantage to Nick Folk (92.3 FG%) who finished 3rd in my ranking, compared to 7th for Tyles Bass (87.5 FG%).
Defenses and Special Teams
Once again it is a battle of two stellar defenses, adding some potential cold weather and who knows, snow to the mix, you have a perfect storm for an Under ticket to cash.
Both ST units are positioned in the middle of my ranking, and should not influence the final score.
Final Prediction
It is difficult to beat a football team, two times in a row, the Patriots experienced it last time they played against Buffalo. It is also very difficult to beat Bill Belichick two times in a row. Weather, a better Offensive Line, and Bill Belichick, I’ll take the Patriots with the points
Patriots +4.5
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Philadelphia Eagles vs Tampa Bay Buccaneers (TB -8.5 O/U 45.5 ML PHI +310 TB -385)
Quarterbacks
Tom Brady, 4th in my ranking, enough said.
Jalen Hurts is 11th, out of 12, but he is mobile and weather might be a big factor. Extreme winds are even expected.
Advantage to the G.O.A.T.
Kickers
The 30 to 49-yard range is the bread and butter of NFL Kickers. Jake Elliott PHI has 20 FG on 23 attempts in that range this season. Ryan Succop TB has 14 FG on 18 attempts. To be noted, Succop is 0 for 1 kicking beyond the 50-yard mark this season. Elliott is 3 for 3. Advantage Philly.
Defenses and Special Teams
This is where it gets tricky, the Eagles are the 5th best Special Teams unit in the Wild Card round, the Buccaneers the worst. This could affect field position for TB and could be a key to victory, or a Factor in the Cover for the Eagles. The Eagles also have the worst defense in the Wild Card round, TB is 7th.
Final Prediction
My comparison and equations tell me this is a closer matchup than the Spread and Moneyline would indicate. I grabbed the Eagles +9.5 earlier this week. I would grab them north of 8 still, especially if the weather is unraveling like expected. The Eagles to cover, because of Jake Elliott.
Eagles +8.5 or Better
San Francisco 49ers vs Dallas Cowboys (DAL -3 O/U 50.5 ML SF+135 DAL-160)
Quarterbacks
Why Dak Prescott gets so much hate, I will never know. I let numbers and analysis talk. Prescott is one of the most well-ranked QBs in multiple analytical categories, and #1 according to FootballOutsiders QB DVOA. He is #2 in my ranking of QB in the Wild Card round. Garoppolo is 6th. A significant advantage to Dallas.
Kickers
Thank God this game is indoors because 2 of the worst kickers in the round are facing each other on Sunday, Greg Zeuerlein (82.3 FG%) vs Robbie Gould (87.0 FG%). No one has an advantage here, except maybe the missed FG prop betters.
5$ on the DOINK!
Defenses and Special Teams
Dallas has the 2nd best defense in my ranking. That is where the game will be won. If Dallas’ defense can score, or create turnovers, it will be a long night for the betting public, which is on the 49ers. Both Special Teams struggle, so no advantage there.
Dallas Defense to score a TD - Yes +160
Final Prediction
The 49ers are receiving a lot of public backing, and a lot of money. yet the line hasn’t moved in a couple of days. That, and the strong disparity between the teams in my comparisons is telling me that there is still lots of value on Dallas -3.
Dallas Cowboys -3 or Better, Over 46.5 In-Game, If Available
Pittsburgh Steelers vs Kansas City Chiefs (KC - 12.5 O/U 46.0 ML PIT+525 KC-715)
Big Ben’s last rodeo!
Quarterbacks
An encore presentation of Big Ben’s goodbye. Roethlisberger is #12 out of 12 in my ranking. PIT made the playoffs despite his lack of accuracy, lack of mobility, and lack of game-changing plays. Yet, here we are. No pressure on Big Ben. All the pressure is on Mahomes. Injuries to his favorite targets have influenced his recent play, and I believe Mahomes will have a big game, but 12.5 points is a lot. Stay tuned to find out where I believe there is value in this game. Advantage Mahomes.
Kickers
Chris Boswell PIT and Harrison Butker have similar numbers. Boswell 36 FG on 40 attempts this season ((90 FG%) and Butker 25 on 28 (89.3). Both are also highly accurate beyond the 50-yard mark: Boswell 8 for 9, Butker 7 for 9. No clear advantage.
Defenses and Special Teams
Kansas City has the best ST unit in the Wild Card round. Both defenses can struggle, KC struggles in the 4th quarter, PIT in the first half. KC jumps to score quickly usually, there could be value in the Over First Half 23.5
Final Prediction
It will be a weird game where KC takes the lead early and does not allow a TD in the 1st half, KC will then stop playing in the 4th quarter, like it has been the trend recently, to see Big Ben mount a comeback in the 2nd half for a chance at one more playoff win. My value is pizza money on First Half Result / Second Half Result Kansas City 1st Half / Pittsburgh 2nd Half at 5/1 or Better. Stay away from the spread, or take PIT with the points, if you must bet on it.
Arizona Cardinals vs Los Angeles Rams (LA -4.0 O/U 49.5 ML ARI+166 LA-200)
Quarterbacks
Matthew Stafford finished 3rd in my ranking and he is an undervalued QB according to my calculations. The presence, and now familiarity with OBJ will help with the threat of the explosive play now always present. Kyler Murray finished 5th in my ranking. He is mobile, but lacks weapons, as injuries have plagued his receiver core. Advantage Stafford, and take the Over on Matthew Stafford’s Passing Yards.
Kickers
This is the biggest disparity in all my comparisons today. Matt Gay is statistically the best kicker in the Wild Card Round, Matt Prater the worst.
Gay: 32 for 34, 94.1 FG% - Long 55, extra point completion rate of 98%
Prater: 27 for 30, 81.1 FG% - Long 62 (ok that is impressive), extra point completion rate of 95.4%.
Advantage to the Rams.
Defenses and Special Teams
LA has the 4th defense in my rankings, ARI is the 5th. Special teams are where LA has significant advantages, and we have seen Arizona struggle lately on ST with flubs, drops, and turnovers. CB James Conner is a Game Time Decision for Arizona. Significant advantage to the Rams.
Final Prediction
Matthew Stafford and the Rams are going to perform above expectation. Take the team Over for LA, Passing yard over for Stafford, and the Rams with the points!
Enjoy the first weekend in the NFL Playoffs.
Next post on Tuesday - Getting Ready for March Madness Right Now and Betting College BasketBall in January.
Until next time, play responsibly, and all the best!